Beginning of the end for Germany’s car manufacturers in China

During the IAA MOBILITY in 2021 I’ve said a sentence that described the downfall of German Automotive Industry if they continue doing the same old stuff.

See the last three minutes of the video

After this public statement, I’ve received a lot of unpleasant mails and phone calls. 

  • I am insulting the German Engineers
  • I should be grateful for the possibilities in this industry
  • every 10th job is depending on this industry and we all should be thankful
  • yadda yadda.

It was like a relationship breakup, some ppl felt not respected, not appreciated.

Well (mostly) guys… truth hurts. GET OVER IT! Wake up and complain at your management.

Did the industry woke up?


Meanwhile the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) and other automotive lobby groups, together with Volker Wissing and the FDP secured as much old fashioned BS as possible, misused “Technologieoffenheit” for backward thinking.

Result is…

…as predicted.

When an industry is depending on 30% from the Chinese sales, not just on production there.

When 25% of sales come from the USA, then thanks to IRA vehicles have to be completely Made in the USA.

When desperate protection of legacy technology and agitating to manipulate any change in automotive favour becomes the imperative.

As with whining about the Euro7 standard while China will be introducing a new emissions standard from July 1st, which will be at least as strict as the planned Euro7 standard.

But local politics can only do local. Just like the die-hard Volker Wissing with his mimimi: “The planned #Euro7 regulation will incur considerable costs and thus tie up financial resources that are required for investments in climate-neutral drives. We need practicable solutions so that the transformation succeeds quickly and strengthens Europe as a business location.”

This transformation should have happened latest by 2015 when the self-responsible German automotive industry was caught in the biggest fraud.

The car industry can either build cars for the world market or hope for the Christmas miracle and vegetate in a subsidized local morass.


Because the times when Chinese cars fell apart when the doors were closed are over. They’ve learned. And it does not matter if we like it or not. Entire development departments have been poached and are working on Made in China.

Their market is growing and simply excludes the German automotive industry, as it does not satisfy needs quickly enough. And their needs are not in the ICE. A market that alone is as large as the entire EU plus the USA no longer relies on Volkswagen Group, but on By Yu, NIO, GEELY and so on.

Pretty stupid of us, but doing nothing pays off. Sorry, doing nothing is wrong, we prepared the diesel gate.

Nokia in their sector has impressively demonstrated in Finland what the German automotive industry is getting into. Shielded by interdependence aka shading with politics, you can be arrogant and ignore reality – until you are completely surprised…

The growth within China increases their hunger for new markets. Of course.

As the Wirtschaftswoche wrote: This is the beginning of the end for Germany’s car manufacturers in China.

Again the German quality industry is going ahead and wants to pick cherries. More margin for less effort.

The entry-level models are discontinued because they are not profitable.

Weeeee what a surprise: who can claim the markets for themselves?

In addition, we spin the fairy tale of smartphones on wheels. To sell subscriptions and pay-per use. An automotive freemium model.

Except that the automotives neuter the smartphone in order to collect additional money. Imagines a smartphone only allowing the basic functions.

  • Faster Internet $$
  • Camera usage $$
  • GPS $

So what’s next?

A perseverance will only convince a few brand believers. The rest will decide by price. At some point the brands will no longer be profitable and will have to become sexy for new investors. Layoff’s, manufacturing relocation etc.

Guess who is the largest shareholder at Mercedes.

We will (if the brands survive) see a sell-off like with Nordmende or Telefunken.

These labels are then stuck onto inferior products Made in Elsewhere.

Then a BMW logo will be on a BYD and the Mercedes star on a Geely.

So what?